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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."